There appears to be a stark dichotomy in President Trump's relations with Russia and Ukraine over the current war. Outside observers see that Trump is treating Vladimir Putin with courtesy and soft words, praising the latter's desire for peace. At the same time, he has offered sharp criticism of Vlodomyr Zelenskyy, implying that the Ukrainian President is an obstacle to peace between Russia and Ukraine.
The Talosian Principle
This apparent disparity in treatment of the two warring leaders disappears when you understand the common principle Trump is applying to both equally: the Talosian Principle. Star Trek fans know that the aliens of Talos IV, featured in the original pilot of the series, were a race of incredibly powerful telepaths. They were able to enter and control the thoughts and perceptions of other beings to manipulate their behavior. Their manipulation technique was based on one simple principle: Wrong thinking will be punished. Right thinking will be as swiftly rewarded.
This was on full display in the February 28 Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy. The latter felt compelled to challenge Vice President Vance's description of Trump's diplomacy that pulled Putin into talks about concluding the war. It's understandable that the leader of a country that was brutalized and decimated by naked aggression would feel aggrieved that the U.S. President would not explicitly call out the aggressor's brutality, if not side with the victim outright. However, as Trump said in response to a reporter's question during the Zelenskyy meeting, "You want me to say really terrible things about Putin, and then say, ‘Hi Vladimir, how are we doing on the deal?’ That doesn’t work that way."
However, that is exactly what Zelenskyy wanted: for Trump to say terrible things about Putin. Pressing Vance and Trump to acknowledge Putin as a common enemy of Ukraine and the United States, Zelenskyy put himself into conflict with Trump's goal of making a deal acceptable to both sides (or at least equally unacceptable to both sides). To Trump, Zelenskyy had fallen into wrong thinking, and he rapidly took steps to punish him, berating him and expelling him from the White House.
It’s politically effective
Trump's use of this principle was on full display in 2016. His political rivals for the Republican nomination exhibited "wrong thinking" in running against him and bore the brunt of his rhetorical punishment, amplified by his dedicated followers. Those who dropped out were rewarded for their right thinking with praise. Senator Marco Rubio, who Trump called "Little Marco" in 2016, is now a senior member of Trump's Cabinet. Even Senator Ted Cruz, who persisted in opposing Trump through the 2016 Republican National Convention, later came around and was lavished with Trump's praise in 2024.
If Zelenskyy and his advisers learn this lesson about Trump, the Ukrainian president will express contrition for his wrong thinking and indicate he is on board with Trump's process for ending the war. Perhaps most importantly, he will stop insisting that Trump punish Putin while the latter is demonstrating right thinking about ending the war. In that case, having got the desired change in Zelenskyy's behavior, Trump will forgive, if not forget, and will include Zelenskyy in the process as though the wrong thinking never happened.
The alien world of the Mideast
Gaza provides another example. Trump looked at decades of wrong thinking by the Arab World in using the misery of the Palestinians to prolong the conflict with Israel and decided to move the situation off top dead center by proposing to relocate the population of Gaza to Egypt, Jordan, and other countries and rebuild the enclave in his preferred style before - perhaps - allowing the previous occupants to return.
One of the amusing aspects of observing how people react to President Trump is noting their tendency to take everything he says at face value. When Trump made his Gaza proposal, nations around the world offered reactions varying from applause to outrage, but they all assumed that he intended to implement it as stated.
What he really wanted is the reaction he got from the Arab world. Egypt and Jordan want no part of an influx of Gazans, whether as temporary refugees or permanent immigrants. In response to the Trump plan, seven Arab nations met in Riyadh to discuss a counterproposal. Notably, the group excluded Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian authority. The Arab group has scheduled a meeting in Cairo to present their plan to the public, including Abbas. A European diplomat said, "The Arab leaders are really feeling the pressure from Washington, and for the first time, I see growing willingness to abandon Abu Mazen if [Arab leaders] think it’ll save them from the Trump administration."
Undoubtedly, President Trump was prepared to push his plan forward if no alternative emerged, but he counted on its panicking the Arab world into thinking seriously about the endgame it wishes to see in Gaza. The provocation of the Trump Plan made it clear that the Arab world no longer had the option to throw money and supportive words at the Gazans without taking up the task of changing the status quo and participating actively in concrete solutions.
This is a display of right thinking by the Arab world. If they can persuade the Palestinians to buy into their plan, Trump will reward them with U.S. approval.
Returning to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Putin also needs to understand the Talosian principle. He may mistake Trump's rewards for right thinking with blanket approval of Putin's behavior. But if he crosses any line with respect to negotiating an end to hostilities, Trump will quickly demonstrate the downside of wrong thinking. For the sake of both the Ukrainian and Russian peoples, let's hope their respective leaders learn to live by the Talosian Principle when dealing with Trump.